Findings of a Survey Conducted by Kesten Green and Len Tashman
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چکیده
One popular alternative to using either A or F as the denominator is to take an average of the two: (A+F)/2. Calculated over multiple forecast periods, this measure is most commonly called the symmetric MAPE (sMAPE) and has been used in recent forecasting competitions to compare the accuracy of forecasts from different methods. See, for example, www. neural-forecasting-competition.com/index.htm. SURVEY RESULTS We received 61 usable responses. 34 of these (a majority of 56%) preferred option 1: using the Actual as the denominator for the percentage error. 15% preferred option 2, using the Forecast as the denominator, while 29% chose option 3, something other than the actual or the forecast.
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